Human population growth in relation to food prices/shortages

We are right in the middle of an intense population explosion. I've been hearing and reading a lot about inflation and rising food price, food shortages and oil/food relation and so on. It seems like there is a growing consensus that these food supply issues are related to population growth; it is the old Malthusian theory: that we will run out of everything because there are too many of us. Another general consensus has been that the only way we will feed our ever-expanding population is through massive corporate farms with thousands of acres under cultivation. In Canada (according to stats-can) our actual acres of farm land since 1932 has stayed about the same, but our percentage of farmers has gone from 32% to 2% (1932 to 2008). Its true we have seen increased yields in farming in the last century. Just like everything else farming has advanced, cars and telephones and technology in general has "happened". Our better yields are from human ingenuity and cooperation, but they are not from the industrial food approach. In fact many studies have shown that farmers get much better yields from small-scale farms, family farms if you will. Here is a snippet from a 1989 study by the US National Research Council that assessed industrial food production compared to alternative methods:

“Well-managed alternative farming systems nearly always use less synthetic chemical pesticides, fertilizers, and antibiotics per unit of production than conventional farms. Reduced use of these inputs lowers production costs and lessens agriculture’s potential for adverse environmental and health effects without decreasing — and in some cases increasing — per acre crop yields and the productivity of livestock management systems.”

That's not the only study that concludes that small family farms out-produce corporate farms acre for acres. And I concur, from what I've seen on ours and colleagues relatively small plots of land, we are able to produce a tremendous amount of food from a small area. Anyone with a productive garden would agree. Elliot Coleman writes that 1 acre can feed 200 people. Joel Salatin claims he makes almost 10 times the money per acre than conventional beef, chicken and hog farmers do. People like this are doing it right, they are making the land better than before they used it and pulling massive high quality yields with no synthetic inputs, and very little dependence on petroleum.

So, are we really running out of food because there are too many of us? No, we are just doing it all wrong. We need more farmers, and we need to embrace the small scale, hyper efficient family farms.

If you look at the graph above you'll see that the population explosion happens at about the same time as the decrease of farmers (1932). Basically, since the 30's humankind has moved to the city and tried to get a job in manufacturing. Ever since urbanization we've been seeing the number of farmers decrease. At this point we need people to not only farm, but we need to farm the right way so we can feed ourselves for the long term, for the "forever term" actually. We could easily feed ourselves if we get back to family farms. We have the land and the tools (I'd like an electric tractor though) and the know how.

I believe we need to re-examine the rising food cost issue as well. I don't know about the big global picture enough to comment on the price of rice in Thailand for example, but here in our local area the majority of people feel food is expensive. They also think gas is expensive, phone bills, gas, taxes, mortgages etc. are too expensive. Everything is expensive, and some are saying food especially. It is true that food prices have risen recently, but I would argue that they are still not as high as they will be. Over the last decade or so we haven't been paying the true cost of food, and that is why food has been so cheap. We are now realizing that food can't be produced strictly for profit by massive corporations for the "forever term". Industrial food is poor quality, unhealthy, bad for the environment, and fundamentally inefficient. So when we buy this food, we are paying the corporation what it needs to re-capture for its production costs, but we aren't paying for the costs this food production has had on our ecosystem, our communities and our health. These hidden costs, or externalities, are the burden of society, and the collective effect of these externalities is crushing agriculture and virtually every other staple industry. So when you go to the grocery store and see california organic carrots on sale for 59 cents/lb, or chinese garlic for 1.99/lb or cheap potatoes please consider that what your saving on now will be billed to you and you children later.

SUPPORT YOUR LOCAL FAMILY FARMS!